Otra visión negativa, de Oxford Analytica - agosto 2009

Fuente: Oxford Analytica
http://www.forbes.com/2009/08/19/spain-unemployment-economy-business-oxford-jobs.html

"Rebuilding Global Markets
Unemployment Soars In Spain
Oxford Analytica, 08.20.09,
The country needs radical reforms to rebuild its competitive position.
One of the features setting the recession in Spain apart from those in other countries is the exceptional rise of unemployment to close to 20% of the labor force. According to government figures on registered unemployment between January 2008 and April 2009, the number of unemployed rose by 61%.

Consequences of high unemployment.
The high unemployment rate has various implications for the economy, public finances and social coherence:
--Depressing effect.
High unemployment may delay any economic recovery, undermining consumer demand and impeding a recovery in the housing market.
--Fiscal impact.
Rising unemployment is contributing to the squeeze on public-sector finances resulting from higher spending and lower revenue. In the first year of unemployment, the government pays both unemployment benefit and some social security contributions. This will result in an unemployment benefit bill of over 30 billion euros ($43 billion) this year, up more than 50% from 2008. Payments may rise faster, as many of those made unemployed early were on fixed-term contracts and low salaries. On the revenue side, there are losses associated with lower tax receipts from the unemployed.
--Excessive deficit.
The squeeze will raise the public-sector deficit to approximately 10% of GDP in 2009, after several years of balance and a small surplus in 2007. Equally, the public debt-to-GDP ratio will rise from a low of 36% in 2007 to some 50% by end-2009 and approach 60% in 2010 (still relatively low by international standards). The deficit breaches the E.U. Stability and Growth Pact. As a consequence, the European Commission has initiated its excessive deficit procedure, requiring the Spanish government to reduce the deficit to 3% or less by 2012. This timescale will require an austerity budget in 2010, could derail any economic recovery and is unlikely to be achieved.
--Pensions.
High unemployment also places further pressure on the pension system. Many of those made redundant are retiring early, instead of working longer as is required to maintain the pension system in an environment of demographic aging. "


Recogido entre los post de agosto 2009 - http://barcepundit.blogspot.com/2009_08_01_archive.html